Chances are, you’ve already heard or read endless predictions about… everything. The direction of interest rates. Market returns and whether the markets will go down or up. When the next recession will hit. The movements of the cryptocurrency markets.
If the market gurus were being honest, they wouldn’t give us definitive answers to any of the questions that are posed to them. Does anybody really have a working crystal ball? If they did, would they share what they’ve seen in it?
A recent article in the financial services press offered up some realistic answers to the questions that financial journalists and cable tv hosts typically ask. Here are some examples:
Are stocks overvalued?
We don’t know. All we know is markets go up over time.
What are the signs I should look for that predict a market correction?
There are none.
What’s your view of [this headline] on Bloomberg or CNBC?
It justified my view that not watching Bloomberg or CNBC should have been one of my resolutions this year.
What do you think of what the technical analysts are saying about the near future?
The only thing I know for certain about technical analysis is that it’s possible to make a living publishing a newsletter on the topic.
What do you think of Jim Cramer’s opinions about the market?
About the same (actually slightly worse) than the flip of a coin, without the attitude.
Wells Fargo is now positive on gold. Should I buy gold?
Gold might take off or tank. The opinion of Wells Fargo about some event in the future is no better than yours. Personally, I would like to see Wells Fargo “turn positive” on ethical behavior toward its employees and clients.
Are stocks vulnerable to another pullback?
Yes. They always are. The problem is that no one has the expertise to tell you when market corrections will occur, although many love to imply that they do.
Do you have an investing goal for 2019?
Make your investing about as exciting as watching paint dry. Leave the excitement to others.
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